Three sectors. What we watch, where we look, and what would prove us wrong.
For each sector we publish our working thesis and the events that would break it. Every brief includes at least one signal that goes against the thesis — a thesis you never test isn't worth much.
Electrification, grid build-out and defense supply chains need more copper, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical minerals than existing mines are set to deliver. New mines take many years to discover, permit, finance and build, and governments increasingly treat these supply chains as strategic.
Signals we track
- Drill results and resource or reserve updates
- Mining permits and environmental approvals
- Financings, offtake and streaming agreements
- Production and cost guidance changes
- Government critical-mineral lists, funding and stockpiles
- Export controls and trade measures
- Mergers and acquisitions
Sources we read
- SEDAR+ filings (Canada)
- ASX company announcements (Australia)
- SEC EDGAR filings (U.S.)
- USGS mineral commodity data and critical-minerals list
- Government funding and policy notices
- Company press releases and technical reports
What would break the thesis
- Demand growth disappoints (slower electrification or grid spending)
- Substitution or recycling cuts demand for a key mineral
- New supply arrives faster than expected
- Export restrictions are lifted and prices fall back
- Repeated permit denials, cost overruns or delays
Utilities, governments and large power buyers — data-center operators among them — are extending reactor lives, restarting idled plants and planning new capacity. Meanwhile, mining, conversion and enrichment capacity outside Russia remains limited after years of underinvestment.
Signals we track
- Reactor licensing, life extensions, restarts and new builds
- Small modular reactor milestones
- Utility fuel contracting
- Producer output, guidance and mine restarts
- Conversion and enrichment capacity announcements
- Holdings published by physical uranium trusts
- Sanctions and import rules on nuclear fuel
Sources we read
- U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- World Nuclear Association
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) uranium reports
- Producer releases and published price indicators
- SEC EDGAR and SEDAR+ filings
What would break the thesis
- Reactor projects delayed, cancelled or closed early
- Idled mines restart faster than demand grows
- Restrictions on Russian fuel are eased
- A serious nuclear incident reverses policy
- Data-center power demand is met mostly by other sources
Defense budgets in the U.S., Europe and allied countries are under pressure to grow, and a rising share goes to software, autonomy, drones, space and AI-enabled systems — alongside rebuilding munitions stocks and traditional platforms.
Signals we track
- Government contract awards and solicitations
- Budget requests and appropriations
- NATO and European defense spending decisions
- Autonomy, drone, space and AI program milestones
- Export approvals and restrictions
- Insider transactions reported to the SEC
Sources we read
- U.S. Department of Defense daily contract announcements
- SAM.gov awards and solicitations
- Congressional budget and appropriations documents
- NATO publications and European ministries of defense
- SEC EDGAR (8-K, 10-Q, Form 4)
- Company press releases
What would break the thesis
- Ceasefires or de-escalation reduce urgency
- Budget cuts, stopgap funding or political gridlock
- Major programs cancelled or delayed
- New export restrictions
- Cost overruns and execution failures
The list comes from public fund holdings, not from our preferences.
We build the list of companies we follow from the published holdings of sector funds, including broad reference funds, and refresh it monthly. That keeps coverage wide and avoids following only the funds the author owns. Company names appear in the briefs only when a company is the subject of a signal, always with the source.
Working theses are general research views, not recommendations. They can be wrong, and we publish the evidence against them. See the Disclaimer and Disclosure policy.